Mauritius & Rodrigues Summer 2026–2027: Seasonal Weather and Cyclone Outlook

Released 27 October 2026

Hotter Temperatures, Below-Average Rainfall in Mauritius and 5–7 Named Storms Forecast for the Southwest Indian Ocean

The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) has released its official summer outlook for 2026–2027, forecasting above-average temperatures, changing rainfall patterns and the possibility of extreme weather events across Mauritius and Rodrigues.

The summer season runs from 1 November 2026 to 30 April 2027, while the official cyclone season extends until 15 May 2027. Tropical storms can also develop outside these dates.

The outlook considers global climate patterns, including a very strong El Niño event that began developing in June 2026 and is expected to intensify further during the coming summer, alongside regional weather and ocean conditions.

Planning a holiday during cyclone season? Read our Mauritius Cyclone Season 2026–2027 Guide to understand official cyclone warning levels, how tropical storms can affect flights and excursions, and what precautions visitors should take before and during their stay.

Temperatures: A Hotter Summer Expected

Both Mauritius and Rodrigues are expected to experience above-normal temperatures, with some days potentially exceeding monthly averages by more than 3°C.

• Mauritius: Temperatures could reach 36°C along the western coast.

• Rodrigues: Coastal temperatures may reach 33°C on particularly hot days.

• December 2026 to March 2027: Extended periods of high humidity and light winds could produce uncomfortable heat, particularly for children, older people and vulnerable individuals.

Visitors should prepare for hot and humid conditions, especially when planning hiking, sightseeing and outdoor activities.

Rainfall: A Drier Summer for Mauritius

Summer rainfall is expected to begin during the final week of November 2026, with different conditions forecast for the two islands.

• Mauritius: Approximately 1,100 mm of rainfall, representing 80% of the seasonal average.

• Rodrigues: Approximately 930 mm, representing 115% of the seasonal average.

Although Mauritius is expected to receive less rainfall overall, heavy downpours, thunderstorms and localised flooding remain possible. Below-average seasonal rainfall does not necessarily mean fewer rainy days or uninterrupted sunshine.

Cyclone Season 2026–2027: What to Expect

The Mauritius Meteorological Services forecasts 5 to 7 named tropical storms across the Southwest Indian Ocean basin during the season.

The moderate tropical storm Agueda, named by Madagascar's Meteorological Services on 20 October 2026, was the first named storm ahead of the official summer season.

The area west of Diego Garcia is considered particularly favourable for tropical storm development.

Importantly, the number of named storms does not indicate how many cyclones will directly affect Mauritius or Rodrigues. Some systems may remain far offshore without significantly affecting either island.

However, tropical systems passing nearby may generate powerful ocean swells, dangerous coastal conditions and, in the case of close approaches, storm surges.

Extreme Weather: Additional Precautions

Beyond cyclones, the seasonal outlook highlights the possibility of increasingly intense weather events, including:

• Prolonged heatwaves and high humidity.

• Heavy or torrential rainfall and flash flooding.

• Violent thunderstorms and electrical storms.

• Localised mini-tornadoes.

• Rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones.

• Dangerous ocean swells and coastal storm surges.

These events may occur even during a summer forecast to receive below-average total rainfall.

What This Means for Visitors to Mauritius

Mauritius is expected to experience a hotter-than-usual summer, with generally lower seasonal rainfall but occasional periods of intense weather. Travellers can still plan beach holidays, island excursions and outdoor activities, while allowing flexibility for changing weather conditions.

Visitors travelling between November 2026 and May 2027 should regularly check official weather forecasts, particularly before boat excursions, hiking trips and coastal activities.

A forecast of 5–7 named storms across the Southwest Indian Ocean does not mean that 5–7 cyclones will strike Mauritius. The outlook describes regional cyclone activity, not the number of direct impacts on the island.

Travelling to Mauritius in 2027? Explore our Mauritius Travel Advice 2027 Hub for essential information on entry requirements, travel documents, weather, safety, airport arrivals and practical holiday planning tips.

Source: Mauritius Meteorological Services – Summer 2026–2027 Seasonal Outlook, issued 27 October 2026. Seasonal predictions may be revised as new meteorological information becomes available.